Jacob Zenn analyses the Chibok kidnapping and what it tells us about Boko Haram. He argues that the insurgents are steadily gaining control of territory in Borno State, creating no-go zones for the government and security forces. This reflects some level of local support or acquiescence. He concludes that the military should focus on attacking Boko Haram’s leaders and that the government should work with Muslim leaders to generate counter-narratives to Boko Haram’s messages. He also notes that Al-Qaeda are avoiding open affiliation with Boko Haram because its activities are too controversial.

Read the full article on jamestown.org . Excerpts are below:

“The ease with which Boko Haram carried out the kidnapping of the schoolgirls in Chibok and Shekau’s religious justifications for the operation suggests that Boko Haram is steadily establishing control of territory for the establishment of his envisioned Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria. The financial and other benefits some tribal leaders and foot soldiers acquire from cooperating with the group may provide sufficient local support for Boko Haram to maintain hideouts in the Nigeria-Cameroon border region among the population. At present, Nigerian security forces and other government officials are effectively absent from swathes of territory in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state, which likely contributes to Shekau’s sense of control of territory and may enable him to convince his fighters that the conditions have been met to justify the establishment of an Islamic state”

“[A]l-Qaeda has not recognized Boko Haram as an affiliate or shown support for its Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria. Al-Qaeda is already troubled by the mass killings of Muslim civilians by the renegade former al-Qaeda affiliate, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), whose late leader, Omar al-Baghdadi, Shekau praised in several videos. [10] Affiliating with Boko Haram, whose violence towards Muslims is likely even greater than ISIS, could become a liability for al-Qaeda’s ‘brand’.”