Welcome to the first of a series of monthly briefings from the Nigeria Security Network, a new collaborative group dedicated to promoting research and analysis related to Nigerian security.

Our network launched on 16 May with an open letter to the UN Secretary General calling for a comprehensive effort to address the crisis of civilian protection in Nigeria’s north-east. Our letter, and our formation, came as a result of the growing violence in areas affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. The casualties of the conflict in the first few months of 2014 than in any other equivalent period since it began in 2009.

Our open letter called on the international community to assist Nigeria with training and advice, and to help coordinate a regional security response along Nigeria’s borders, but cautioned that direct intervention could backfire. It called on the Nigerian government to re-orient its military strategy towards population protection and noted the particular need for protection of women and girls. It also pressed the Nigerian military to do more to build public support for the counter-insurgency and avoid perpetrating human rights violations.

In the section below, you will find a selection of our most recent analytical work. I would particularly like to draw your attention to an by Jacob Zenn in which he predicts Boko Haram could be set to expand its operations and influence beyond northern Nigeria and the Chad-Niger-Cameroon border area. I’d also like to highlight a by Kyari Mohammed who charts the ideological and operational evolution of Boko Haram and explains the local grievances that have fuelled the insurgency. Finally, don’t miss this important analysis by Elizabeth Pearson and Jacob Zenn pointing out that the tactic of kidnapping girls has been provoked in part by detention of women and children by the Nigerian security forces.

As we move into a new and difficult phase of the insurgency, let us all remember that there are no easy answers for tackling a conflict of this kind. The Nigerian government finds itself facing a challenge arguably even more complex than that faced by Britain and the United States in Afghanistan, with fewer resources and less assistance to combat it. NSN intends to play a constructive role in helping the government to confront Boko Haram.

Andrew Noakes
Coordinator
Nigeria Security Network

Our Analysis

Jacob Zenn writes for CTC Sentinel, breaking down the structure of Boko Haram, analysing its international links and influences, and predicting where the insurgency is headed. He shows how Boko Haram consists of different factions that come together to coordinate large operations. He predicts the insurgency may turn its attention beyond its existing area of operations. He also suggests its ideology will evolve to become more trans-regional.

Kyari Mohammed, Hannah Hoechner, Freedom Onuoha, and Zacharias Pieri have all contributed to this comprehensive volume. Kyari Mohammed’s piece charts the evolution of Boko Haram and the local grievances that have fuelled the insurgency. Hannah Hoechner explains there’s no evidence to suggest graduates of Nigeria’s Quranic schools are a recruitment source for Boko Haram, but calls for reform to improve the quality and affordability of secular education to reduce the demand for such schools. Freedom Onuoha argues for a political counter-insurgency strategy that delivers public goods and builds state legitimacy. Finally, Zacharias Pieri and his co-author deliver a critical assessment of the performance of the Nigerian security forces, showing the abnormally high level of civilian casualties resulting from military operations.

How Nigerian police also detained women and children as weapon of war
Elizabeth Pearson and Jacob Zenn point out that the tactic of kidnapping girls has been provoked in part by detention of women and children by the Nigerian security forces.

Why Nigeria has not defeated Boko Haram
Writing for the BBC, Andrew Walker argues that the state of emergency in Nigeria’s north-east has had little impact on the insurgency. He shows how the military are not trusted due to human rights violations and lack the equipment and motivation to fight effectively.

After kidnappings, Nigeria must step up
Jason Warner and Jacob Zenn argue that security needs to be de-politicised and there need to be more funds made available for areas affected by the insurgency. They also call for regional cooperation and more emphasis on human intelligence gathering.

Nigerian Chief of Defense Staff Responds to Critics of the Military
John Campbell highlights the need for a stronger and more effective Nigerian military resembling the force that used to command respect for its peacekeeping contributions across Africa.

Ryan Cummings writes about the possible outcomes to the Chibok abduction. He suggests a hostage-prisoner exchange is the most likely, and analyses the rumours about the Nigerian government recently pulling out of a deal with Boko Haram.

Key points from this briefing

• International support in the form of training and advice will be important. There must also be a regional response to insecurity along Nigeria’s borders. But Western powers must be cautious about direct intervention.
• More attention should be paid to protecting the population, and particularly protecting women and girls.
• Some of the security forces’ actions have backfired, particularly human rights violations and detention of women and children.
• Efforts should be made to de-politicise the conflict.
• The government ought to focus on tackling the underlying grievances that have fuelled the insurgency.
• The government should do more to build support for the counter-insurgency.
• Education reform could play an important role in improving socio-economic conditions in the north-east.
• The Nigerian military could benefit from better equipment and improved capabilities.
• The most likely outcome to the Chibok abduction remains a negotiated hostage-prisoner exchange.
• The insurgency contains different factions that come together for major operations.
• Boko Haram may adopt a wider geographic and ideological agenda.