(first published 29 May 2015)

This month’s briefing comes on the day of President Buhari’s inauguration, as he takes over from President Goodluck Jonathan. We would like to pay tribute to President Jonathan, who successfully curbed Boko Haram’s violence around the recent presidential election and in the period since. As he leaves office, Boko Haram is weakened, though undoubtedly not defeated.

Courtesy of Ambassador Campbell and Zacharias Pieri’s Global Initiative on Civil Society and Conflict, this month’s briefing offers a round-up of the fighting between Boko Haram and the government in recent weeks. It also examines the humanitarian crisis in north-east Nigeria. While Boko Haram no longer appears able to fight a conventional conflict, it has continued to carry out attacks in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region in recent weeks. NSN’s earlier prediction that the insurgency would be able to return to its guerrilla roots after losing territory is being borne out by recent violence.

Meanwhile, attention must be paid to reconstructing the parts of north-east Nigeria devastating by fighting over the last year. The situation of IDPs in particular is of major concern. Now is a crucial time for the government to concentrate its efforts on tackling the underlying causes of Boko Haram in order to defeat the insurgency for good, and to focus on developing the north-east.

Andrew Noakes
Director
NSN

Our analysis

What’s happening with Boko Haram?
Ambassador John Campbell gives a round-up of Boko Haram-related violence in recent weeks. He notes that the violence has clearly declined following the government’s military offensive, but that Boko Haram continues to carry out attacks.

Response needed to northern Nigeria’s humanitarian disaster
In this analysis, Ambassador Campbell calls for an international response to the humanitarian emergency in Nigeria’s north-east. He cites estimates of 1.5 million IDPs in Nigeria and 200,000 outside the country, forced to flee their homes due to Boko Haram. Many are victims of Boko Haram’s violence and are suffering from mental trauma and physical illness, including HIV/AIDS.

Zacharias Pieri and his colleagues at the University of South Florida give a comprehensive update on the security and political situation in Nigeria. In the lead editorial they conclude that education will be the key to building a stronger Nigeria and predict that it can replicate Asia’s post-war growth. Turning to security issues, they suggest that Boko Haram has lost the capacity to fight as a conventional force but maintains the ability to use guerrilla tactics, including suicide attacks. They point out that Boko Haram’s arms supplies appear to have been cut off.

Key points from this briefing

• Boko Haram-related violence has declined in recent weeks but guerrilla attacks show the group has not been defeated
• A major international response is required to tackle the humanitarian crisis in north-east Nigeria
• There must be a new focus on reconstructing areas affected by Boko Haram’s violence and developing the north-east