Boko Haram continues to carry out attacks across north-east Nigeria and would appear to be gaining momentum. This month alone has been characterised by widespread violence with suggestions that up to 2,000 people died in a single attack in Baga on the 7 January. It may, however, be impossible to independently verify this figure due to a lack of clear information.

The porous border between Nigeria and Cameroon continues to be utilised by Boko Haram as a safe haven and transport route for fighters and supplies. Seemingly, Boko Haram has no regard for national boundaries and whilst the majority of attacks have taken place in Nigeria, the possibility of continued cross border attacks should not be ruled out. The most recent atrocity which occurred on the 18 January in Cameroon in which 80 people were abducted would explain the calls by African heads of state for an African Union led offensive to combat Boko Haram once and for all.

Upcoming elections continue to create mounting anxiety as escalation of violence by Boko Haram looks set to intensify. As with previous elections, ethnic and religious identities are emphasised with Muhammadu Buhari being perceived to be the Muslim presidential hopeful of the north and incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan as the Christian president of the south. However, with one million displaced persons in the north unable to vote, this could have significant implications on the outcome of the elections.

Ola Akinfolarin
Assistant Coordinator
NSN

Our analysis

In this piece, Ryan Cummings questions whether it is indeed credible to believe that Boko Haram killed as many as 2,000 people in a single act of mass violence on 7 January. The attack on Baga as well as surrounding towns looks as if it could be Boko Haram’s deadliest act in a catalogue of increasingly heinous attacks carried out by the insurgency. However, the quoted death toll of 2,000 may not be specific to Baga alone but rather a cumulative figure derived from a spate of Boko Haram attacks which occurred between 3 and 7 January.

Emily Mellgard examines the legacy of Boko Haram attacks that have taken place in Cameroon. On 18 January, suspected Boko Haram militants attacked multiple villages among the Mandera Mountains in the Mayo-Tsnaga Department of Cameroon’s Far North Region. At least 4 people were reported dead and 80 people were abducted, 50 of which were children.

Boko Haram has conducted post border raids since at least 2013 in Cameroon. As military pressure on Boko Haram activities in Nigeria escalates, it can be expected that they will continue to use the border as a base from which to launch attacks.

Boko Haram: Jihad is local
In this interview, Zacharias Pieri discusses the latest ideological and tactical developments of Boko Haram. The mass abductions of the girls in Chibok and the use of young girls as suicide bombers would indicate that Boko Haram is in a new phase and their strategies have changed. On an ideological level however, the movement has remained consistent since 2009 in trying to create an Islamic caliphate in northern Nigeria. The Boko Haram ideology is also internationally enhanced and tied to the global growth of radical Islam, particularly in the form promoted by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Boko Haram and the Ballot Box
Andrew Noakes analyses the potential impact of the Boko Haram insurgency on the February 14 presidential election as their campaign of terror continues in the northeast of Nigeria. Since June, the Islamic militant group has seized some 20,000 square miles in the three north eastern states of Yobe, Adamawa and Borno. This is problematic for presidential hopeful Muhammadu Buhari as support for APC comes largely from Nigeria’s majority Muslim northern states. One million plus people that have been forced to flee the militants in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa will not be allowed to vote as Nigeria’s election law only allows people to cast ballots in their local area; one million votes could make all the difference in what is set to be a close race.

In this piece, John Campbell provides a comparative analysis of the 2011 Nigerian elections and the upcoming 2015 elections. In 2011, sitting president Goodluck Jonathan was elected defeating Muhammadu Buhari. In many ways the 2011 elections set the stage for the current national crisis. As in 2015, the two presidential candidates are the Christian Jonathan and the Muslim Buhari. The campaigns were marred by ethnic and religious identities. As a result the election results further demarcated the country along the lines of a Muslim north and a Christian south. Once again in 2015, there are appeals to ethnic and religious identities but the question still remains as to how the one million displaced persons will vote – the mounting anxiety therefore surrounding the upcoming elections is not misplaced.

Key findings

• The reported 2,000 people massacred in Baga is yet to be verified.
• Boko Haram continues to utilise the porous border between Cameroon and Chad, using it as a transportation corridor for supplies and fighters.
• Religious and ethnic identities continue to play a prominent role in the upcoming elections. Buhari is seen as the Muslim president of the north and Jonathan, the Christian president of the south.
• With one million displaced persons potentially unable to vote in north eastern Nigeria, this may disadvantage Buhari.
• There is a strong possibility of increased levels of violence before and after the elections due to ethnic and religious identities that continue to play a prominent role.

The February 2015 elections look set to be the most contentious to date. The potential risk of violence remains particularly high given the set of complexities faced by the Nigerian government. These include the Boko Haram insurgency, religious tension spilling over into politics, and insecurity in the Niger Delta.

It is crucial that the government and other key state actors work together to ensure the risk of violence is minimised; this is of particular importance for northern Nigeria where the safety of voters is a major concern.

Political candidates have even been advised by religious leaders not to contest the forthcoming elections as it could only serve to intensify ethno-religious tensions. Religious affiliations have the potential to shroud issues that are also of great significance for Nigeria such as the importance of good governance.

This month’s analysis includes a report principally authored by Nnamdi Obasi assessing the potential risk of violence during the upcoming elections, a blog post by Emily Mellgard detailing the advice given to political candidates by a religious cleric, a piece by Ryan Cummings which considers the asymmetric warfare of the insurgency, and a blog by Andrew Noakes looking at the possibility of peace with Boko Haram.

Ola Akinfolarin
Assistant Coordinator
NSN

Our analysis

Nigeria’s Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence
Nnamdi Obasi, the principal author of this Crisis Group report, suggests that the risks of violence during the 2015 elections are particularly high given that this is the first nationwide contest between two parties since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Recommendations are offered to a number of key state actors to help mitigate the risk of widespread violence.

Nigerian Religious Leaders Advise Political Candidates
Emily Mellgard in this blog post highlights the advice that has been given to presidential aspirant Muhammadu Buhari and the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan by a prominent Muslim cleric.

Both politicians have been advised not to contest the election as it may propagate ethno-religious tensions with Buhari being seen as the Islamic candidate and Jonathan, the pro-Christian President. She concludes by suggesting that only time will tell if Buhari and Jonathan will heed this advice.

Elections, Boko Haram and Security: Assessing and Addressing Nigeria’s Complex Challenges
Dr Oliver Owen and Professor Mohammed Kuna, explore some of the debilitating challenges that Nigeria presently face; listen to the full discussion here.

Boko Haram and the Symmetry of Asymmetric Warfare
In this piece, Ryan Cummings assesses the acts of violence that have been carried out by the Boko Haram insurgency. He suggests that such acts remain characteristic of typical asymmetric warfare with suicide and car bombings, targeted assassinations and kidnappings to name a few, continuing to serve as preferred attack vectors. He analyses the possible strategic and ideological motivations behind the sect’s ongoing reliance on dispersed asymmetrical forms of violence.

Boko Haram: can a peace deal be negotiated?
Andrew Noakes, writing for Oxford Research Group’s sustainable security blog, considers what it would take to do a peace deal with Boko Haram. He concludes that the first step for achieving peace must be for the army to re-establish security for civilians in the north-east and take the momentum away from the insurgents. Then the underlying drivers of the conflict, including under-development and human rights violations, must be addressed.

Key findings from this briefing

• 2015 elections will be the most contentious elections since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.
• There is a potential risk of violence during the upcoming elections and the government must take the necessary steps to ensure the safety of voters.
• The state of emergency in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe could prevent voting in parts of north-eastern states.
• Ethno-religious tensions could be a prominent feature of the 2015 elections; political candidates have been advised not to politicise religious differences.
• A contest between a political candidate from the north and his Niger Delta counterpart, could result in violence in both regions depending on the outcome of the election.
• The possible strategic and ideological aims of Boko Haram would suggest that the acts of terror employed could have some underlying motivations.
• Taking the momentum away from Boko Haram in the north-east is a prerequisite for any peace deal.
• It is essential to address the underlying drivers of the conflict in order to lay the groundwork for peace.

In this comprehensive report, Nnamdi Obasi, the Principal Author reviews the potential risk for violence around the 2015 elections in Nigeria. With the first nationwide contest between the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) since the return to civilian rule in 1999, the risks are particularly high.

Read the full report here.
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